来源：互联网 作者：admin 时间：2020/06/22
并不是所有目标都能实现，至少在这个时间框架内不会实现。例如，在与印度Petronet的初步承运协议到期后，Tellurian在路易斯安那州的Driftwood LNG项目已经面临延期。与此同时，位于德克萨斯州的另一个LNG项目Golden Pass的产能也从每年1560万吨提高到1810万吨，目前该项目正在建设中。
与此同时，它在当地的竞争对手道达尔即将敲定一项150亿美元的融资方案，用于其在莫桑比克的LNG项目。其中一家参与融资的银行表示，在当前市场环境下，这是一个了不起的成就，因为每个人都在为钱发愁，而银行在决定把钱给谁时要谨慎得多。据国际天然气联盟(International gas Union)的数据，这个价值200亿美元的莫桑比克LNG项目，将使全球LNG总产能每年增加1290万吨。截至今年年底，全球的总产能为4.4585亿吨。
卡塔尔一直感受到来自澳大利亚和美国的越来越大的压力，这两个国家最近一直在以惊人的速度扩大LNG出口能力，夺取一度被视为安全的市场份额。彭博社的Verity Ratcliffe和Anna Shiryaevskaya称，随着供应持续过剩，以及更多LNG出口能力的增加，卡塔尔现在有两个选择，一是减少产量以提高价格；二是提高产量并进一步降低价格以消除竞争。
It may come as a shock to some, but crude oil wasn’t the worst-performing energy commodity in May. Judging by the headline space devoted to it, one would naturally assume no energy commodity could have it worse than crude.
LNG spot prices have been on the slide since April, reaching an all-time low of $1.85 per million British thermal units at the end of May. As with crude oil, the reason was very much the wide gap between supply and demand, already substantial before the coronavirus lockdowns but made even wider than them.
Cargos were canceled, too, notably from the United States to Asia and Europe, with the number calculated at a minimum of 20 cargos for June and July. This dampened demand then pushed gas flows into LNG export facilities to a 13-year-low, suggesting that more pain was on the way.
How LNG is faring in the Covid-19 world is important. It is perhaps more important than how oil is faring. Demand for LNG, according to Reuters reports, was more resilient than oil demand during the lockdowns, possibly because LNG is, among other things, used for electricity generation and that enjoys more stable demand than the transport sector enjoys demand for fuel.
If the coronavirus lockdowns could affect this resilient demand to such an extent as to have analysts talking about all-time price lows and warning about continued volatility, then the bright future of LNG that everyone is anticipating may not materialize in the shape everyone has been expecting.
For instance, a recently released outlook for the LNG industry projects that the United States will add the largest share of new LNG export capacity over the next five years, at 145.1 million tons per year. It will be followed by Russia, which is expected to add 31.2 million tons of LNG capacity, and Mexico, to add 11.7 million tons per year in new capacity. But will all these additions happen if prices remain weak?
Not all of them will happen, at least not in that timeframe. Tellurian, for example, is already facing a delay for its Driftwood LNG project in Louisiana after its preliminary offtake agreement with India’s Petronet expired. At the same time, another LNG project, Golden Pass in Texas, is boosting its nameplate capacity to 18.1 million tons annually from 15.6 million tons. The Golden Pass facility is currently under construction.
Signals are mixed outside the United States as well. Exxon’s final investment decision for the Rovuma LNG project in Mozambique—one of the emerging hotspots for LNG globally—has been delayed, possibly until next year. The delay is a fact despite Exxon’s securing long-term offtake agreements for gas from Rovuma.
At the same time, its local rival, Total, is about to finalize a $15-billion financing package for its own LNG project in Mozambique. This, according to one of the banks taking part in the financing, is a remarkable achievement in the current market circumstances when everyone is strained for money, and banks are a lot more cautious who they give it to. The $20-billion Mozambique LNG project will add 12.9 million tons of liquefied gas annually to the world’s total production capacity seen at 454.85 million tons annually at the end of this year, up by 24.35 million tons from last year, according to the International Gas Union.
The last week has seen an improvement in prices, and this has driven an improvement in U.S. LNG exports, highlighting the mutual dependence of these two. But the price improvement is not at all certain, especially if the world’s top producer of LNG decides to start a price war, Saudi-style.
Qatar has been feeling increasing pressure from Australia and, lately, the United States, which have been expanding their LNG export capacity at breakneck speeds, grabbing market share once considered secure. Now, with oversupply persistent and still more LNG export capacity additions on the way, Qatar, according to Bloomberg’s Verity Ratcliffe and Anna Shiryaevskaya, has two options: reduce production to boost prices or boost it and sink prices further to eliminate the competition.
The flooding tactic has worked before, but it has a bad habit of hurting the one deploying it along with its targets. Negative prices are one likely outcome of such a war. Yet, another outcome might be a consolidation of producers into a group that could hypothetically yield price-controlling power over the global LNG market.
Wherever prices—and production—goes from here, the coronavirus pandemic seems to be having a marked effect on yet another segment of the energy industry, highlighting the weak spots along with its strong points. Among the former, there is the over-reliance on Asia, which is by far the largest single source of LNG demand growth. When pandemic killed this demand growth, prices plunged. Yet, the strong point of LNG is that demand for it over the long term will grow, which is why when demand began to recover in the key Asian markets, prices also began to inch up.
It is possible that some new LNG projects will be delayed by a year or two until prices stabilize. If they stabilize. The LNG industry has become an extremely competitive place, with arguably too many producers fighting for market share in a persistent low-price environment. ?